Evaluating the Summer of 2010

Now that 106 million people have watched Betty White and Abe Vigoda hit the gridiron and Peyton Manning’s legacy hit the floor, it’s sadly time to move on from this NFL season.  With Valentine’s Day coming Sunday and massive winter storms blanketing the East Coast, the week of February 8-14 will go down as the most depressing week of 2010 for the average man.  With the NFL on the back burner and baseball still more than a month away, the American man needs a solace from family, work, school, and the annual Brett Favre stake out.  That’s right, it is now time for America to focus on the NBA;  a league on the brink of its second work stoppage in the last twelve years where the combined rating shares of all five 2009 NBA Finals games wouldn’t add up to the single share of this year’s Super Bowl!

Needless to say, David Stern has plenty of reasons to have sleepless nights.  However, he does have one large beacon of light in the future.  And no, it’s not “Super Nate” participating in his 8,000th consecutive Slam Dunk Contest:  It’s the “summer of 2010″.  Spoken about like a piece of Mayan folklore since 2008, this upcoming summer is a virtual fantasy draft with the potential to bring pandemonium to the NBA’s foundation.  Or it could simply become the single most anticlimactic post-season in sports history.  Either way, come July 1, all basketball fans will be on the edge of their seat awaiting word from their favorite players.

LeBron is the obvious grand prize and this summer could probably be more aptly titled a George Costanza-like “Summer of LeBron!” Teams are scrambling for corpses that can be bought out and expiring contracts in order to make their pitch to the best player in the game.  As we have seen, regardless of supporting cast, having LeBron equals 50-60 wins for the duration of his contract.  The $500 million question floating around NBA circles is how likely is LeBron to leave Cleveland?  Some think it’s a virtual certainty that LeBron bolts for New York, Chicago, or New Jersey/Brooklyn, while others steadfastly claim he’s staying.

The next question is in the event LeBron leaves Cleveland, who comes with him?  Because we know he’s not leaving alone.  There have been rumors circulating since the 2008 Olympics about a pact LeBron/D-Wade or LeBron/Bosh made about their future.  Who really knows whether a pact was made or not, but one thing is for certain, it makes for riveting entertainment.

The best thing about not knowing is we get to speculate until we’re blue in the face.   So here are the ten biggest names coming onto the free agent market and their likelihood of being moved between right now and when/if we tip off the 2010-2011 NBA season.

LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
Contract Type: Player Option
Likelihood of Leaving: 5%
Possible Destinations: Anywhere
Best Destinations (in order): Chicago (if Bosh/Wade comes), LA Clippers, Chicago (if Bosh/Wade doesn’t come), Cleveland, NY Knicks
What Will Happen: Stays in Cleveland
My Thoughts: LeBron is the obvious coup de grace of the 2010 free agent class.  James’ agent can literally put map in front of his face, LeBron can close his eyes and blindly point to a place on the map, and that’s where he’ll play next year.  Dallas?  Los Angeles?  Kazakhstan?  Anything is possible.   While the possibilities may be endless, the reality is LeBron James is going nowhere.  Not even the basketball player with the most endorsements since Jordan can pass up the extra $30 million Cleveland can offer.  The best part is that LeBron already knows he’s staying in Cleveland.

You are probably asking, “How do you know?” Well, I’m not big on theories, but I have one regarding LeBron:  He was never even considering leaving. With speculation beginning before the 2008 season, LeBron has had thousands of opportunities to squash the “he’s leaving” rumors, but has never even come close to doing so.  Why?  Some say it’s because he wants to keep GM Danny Ferry on his toes.  While that may be part of it, the real reason is to weaken the competition across the NBA.  Think about it.  For the past couple of seasons, teams have hoarded 2010 expiring contracts like franchise players, shied away from making trades or signing free agents to contracts that go into the 2010-2011 season just to have a shot at LeBron.  And what has Cleveland done?  They added Shaquille O’Neal and Mo Williams for virtually nothing.  So basically LeBron’s team got immensely stronger, while the rest of the NBA (minus Lakers, Mavs, Spurs, Celtics, Magic, and Hawks) has stayed stagnant.  That leaves very few contenders standing in the way of LeBron and his first NBA Title.  So LeBron re-signs with Cleveland, and all the GM’s who coveted 2010 cap space are left looking like jackasses.  It’s the perfect diabolical plan.  I have you thinking, don’t I?

Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat
Contract Type: Player Option
Likelihood of Leaving: 1%
Possible Destinations:  Chicago & Miami
Best Destinations: Chicago (With Bosh/LeBron), Miami (With Bosh/LeBron), Chicago (W/O Bosh/LeBron), LA Clippers, Miami (W/O Bosh/LeBron)
What Will Happen: Stays in Miami.
My Thoughts: Word out of Miami that Pat Riley is worried about Dwyane Wade’s discontent with his supporting cast.  Well rest assured, Pat, D-Wade isn’t going anywhere.  Miami is in a position to add two max players this summer, which means Wade will almost certainly have a Robin to his new-found Batman role.  The only reason I gave D-Wade a 1% chance of leaving is the allure of going home to Chicago.  If Chicago can get into a position to add two max players over the summer, a lineup including Bosh/Amare, D-Rose, and Noah might be tempting enough to get the Windy City the ultimate silver medal of the free agent class.

Chris Bosh, PF, Toronto Raptors
Contract Type: Player Option
Likelihood of Leaving: 90%
Possible Destinations: Chicago, Miami, New York, New Jersey, Cleveland (via Sign & Trade), Toronto, Dallas (Via Sign & Trade)
Best Destinations: Chicago (With LeBron/D-Wade), Cleveland Chicago (Without LeBron/D-Wade), Miami, Dallas
What Will Happen: Signs With Chicago.
My Thoughts: Finally, we get to talk about someone who will be on the move this summer.  Presumably it will come down to two major markets for Bosh’s services:  Miami and Chicago.  So why, with the opportunity to team up with Dwyane Wade, would he want to sign with Chicago?  Pat Riley.  We’re being blissfully ignorant if we think Riley isn’t just waiting in the wings to Stan Van current coach Erik Spoelstra.  And for some reason, I get the feeling that Bosh doesn’t respond well a forceful personality like Riley.  In turn, Bosh will tell his agent to take the Chicago offer, where he can play for a coach that makes Colts coach Jim Caldwell’s coaching style look like Al Pacino in “Any Given Sunday.”

Amare Stoudemire, PF, Phoenix Suns
Contract Type: Early Termination Option
Likelihood of Leaving: 100%
Possible Destinations: Philadelphia, Houston, New Jersey, New York, Detroit, Miami, Chicago, Washington, Cleveland
Best Destinations: Cleveland, Phoenix, Houston, New Jersey, Miami
What Will Happen: No trade gets worked out for Amare before the All-Star break.   He signs with former coach Mike D’Antoni & the New York Knickerbockers in the off-season
My Thoughts: The best thing for Amare is to stay in Phoenix with Steve Nash.  The proposed trades to Philadelphia, Detroit, and Miami will leave the teams with a presumptive horrendous extension they’ll be looking to get out of virtually immediately.  He’s already proven to be 20% less effective in a slow-down type system, couple that with the below par point guard play for Philly and Detroit, and Wade’s ball domination in Miami and you have a concoction of crap headed to whoever would land him in that scenario.  Luckily for the teams involved, Ben Gordon’s atrocious contract and Miami’s atrocious supporting cast will prevent any trade from happening.  This will allow Stoudemire to waltz out of Phoenix as a free agent where Coach Mike D’Antoni will land his 4th choice and massively overpay for a player who may not even be better than David Lee.

Joe Johnson, SG, Atlanta Hawks
Contract Type: Unrestricted Free Agent
Likelihood of Leaving: 35%
Possible Destinations: Chicago, New Jersey, New York, Atlanta
Best Destinations: Chicago (Wait on this one), Atlanta, New York, New Jersey
What Will Happen: Stays in Atlanta
My Thoughts: Okay, let’s immediately separate what will happen and what should happen.  Joe Johnson will not pass up the extra cash Atlanta will offer to keep him around, but let’s say he did for a second.  We’ve already established Wade and LeBron are staying put and say Bosh goes to Chicago like I have speculated.  Joe Johnson is not a max player, so Chicago won’t need to get rid of both Deng and Hinrich to afford the Johnson/Bosh duo.  So if they do get rid of Hinrich for an expiring, we’re looking at the following lineup for Chicago for years to come:
PG- Rose
SG- Johnson
SF- Deng
PF- Bosh
C- Noah
So regardless of whatever LeBron is able to bring into Cleveland or Wade to Miami, Chicago’s lineup will be better.  Multiple championships better.  But in the end, this won’t happen because Joe Johnson has proved although he’s a relatively quiet guy; he’s very interested in making the most money possible.  Atlanta will offer that.

Carlos Boozer, PF, Utah Jazz
Contract Type: Unrestricted Free Agent
Likelihood of Leaving: 75%
Possible Destinations: Utah & Miami
Best Destinations: Miami
What Will Happen: Signs with Miami
My Thoughts: I was going to put a lot of work into looking into Boozer’s best possibilities, but Miami just makes way too much sense not to happen.  Pat Riley wants a big man to team up with Dwyane Wade.  Boozer has been linked to Miami various times for the past two seasons.   Boozer’s market isn’t exactly going to be sprawling.  Basically, he’ll be one of the last players to sign, initially demanding a max deal before settling on something like 5 years/$60 million.  If I’m wrong about this, I’ll stick my foot square up my ass.

David Lee, PF, New York Knicks
Contract Type: Unrestricted Free Agent
Likelihood of Leaving: 30%
Possible Destinations: New York, New Jersey, Sign & Trade
Best Destinations: New York, Sign & Trade to Phoenix, Sign & Trade to Dallas, New Jersey
What Will Happen: Stays in New York…I think….Actually, fuck it….I have no idea.
My Take: Lee may be the player most adversely affected by being in the Class of LeBron.  I mean Lee may be averaging the quietest 20-12 in New York City history.  No one in NYC knows David Lee exists.  Even Spike Lee ignores him at the family reunion.    The sad part is if Lee put up these numbers last season, God knows Detroit would’ve thrown $100 million at him, but now he’ll be lucky to get 4 years/$36 million on the open market.  Since I really have no feel about what will happen to Lee, let’s go over my favorite scenarios for him.

New York:  This can only happen if the Knicks are totally burned on the free agent market and Lee is still available very late in the free agency process.  That way the Knicks can put a spin that they’re trying to build from within and were really focusing on the free agent class of 2011 the whole time.  Lee continues for playing for D’Antoni and the Knicks save face.  Win/Win

Sign & Trade to Phoenix:  This is cut and dried:  Amare for Lee in a sign-and-trade deal.  Lee gets to play with Steve Nash in an up-tempo system.  Phoenix gets something for Amare.  Opens up New York to sign another free agent based on Bird Rights.  Both teams win.

Sign & Trade to Dallas:  This is the trickiest scenario – It would require the Knicks being on the verge a second max player over the summer and Erik Dampier’s weird contract.  Jeffries and Lee for Dampier?  Which team says no in that scenario?  The real interesting part of this is how it would affect Lee’s game.  People have made jokes over the years about Mike D’Antoni’s system inflating stats and I equate it to a new program being the program shown after the Super Bowl.  Yes, “Undercover Boss” may have drawn 33 million people, but how disappointed will CBS be if draws 8 million or less in weeks to come?  Those are David Lee’s stats to me.  He may average 20-12 in D’Antoni’s system, but will owners be satisfied with the 16-8 he puts up in a normal system?  I think Mark Cuban may be the only owner who would.

Rudy Gay, SF, Memphis Grizzlies
Contract Type: Restricted Free Agent
Likelihood of Leaving: 20%
Possible Destinations: Memphis, LA Clippers, New York, New Jersey, Miami, Chicago, Cleveland (if LeBron leaves)
Best Destinations: LA Clippers, Memphis, Chicago, Miami, New York, New Jersey
What Will Happen: Signs an offer sheet with LA/NY/NJ worth around $8 million per, Memphis matches.
My Thoughts: Gay is another player that’s going to suffer from the increasing frugality of NBA owners.  An unselfish, 23 year-old, forward who puts up 20 a night with ease while often guarding opposition’s best player gets a max deal five years ago.  Not now.  Gay was looking for 5 years/$50 million in an extension with Memphis and he’ll be looking for no less than that on the “open” market.  Granted, if Mike D’Antoni or Russian Cuban wants their organization to save face this off-season, Gay may get massively overpaid if his agent is willing to pull a Scott Boras and wait until the last minute.  The sad part about the NBA is Gay’s unselfishness will end up burning him as he won’t be seen as a big enough name to excite either Metropolitan New York fan base.  Gay stays in Memphis.

Ray Allen, SG, Boston Celtics
Contract Type: Unrestricted Free Agent
Likelihood of Leaving: 60%
Possible Destinations: Any contender (depending on salary demands), Chicago, Washington
Best Destinations: Cleveland, Boston, Houston, San Antonio, Chicago
What Will Happen: Not traded during regular season, signs with Cleveland in off-season
My Thoughts: It is imperative that the Boston Celtics trade Ray Allen by the trade deadline.  They’re old, predictable, and have no chance to make a long playoff run if Allen is on the roster come May.  Well, actually, there is one scenario, but it’s messy.  Boston would have to make the rumored Allen for Caron Butler & Antawn Jamison deal, and then Washington would have to buy out Allen.  This won’t happen, mostly because Boston’s willingness to take on both Butler and Jamison’s salaries is nil.  Due to this, Celtics fans will be subjected to watching their team slowly die and Allen will leave for greener pastures on a mid-level deal in the off-season.

Shaquille O’Neal, C, Cleveland Cavaliers
Contract Type: Unrestricted Free Agent
Possible Destinations: Cleveland, New Jersey, Dallas
Best Destinations: Retirement
What Will Happen: Stays with Cleveland

My Thoughts: Maybe this area would have been best served talking about Manu Ginobili or Zydrunus Ilgauskis, Cleveland’s most effective center, but I’m using it for a plea to my all-time favorite player.  Shaquille, retire.  Please.  I’m begging you.  You’re 2 pounds away from Kevin Federline calling you to say “Bro, you let yourself go.”

I was watching the Cleveland-Orlando game last night and Patrick Chewing looked more in shape than you!  If he’s out of shape now when he was motivated to “win a ring for the King”, what the hell will he look like next season?  Shaq is so massively ineffective; he’s starting to remind me of Jerry Rice:  Seattle Seahawks version.  Much like Rice, he’s stunting the growth of younger players (J.J. Hickson) and only playing to boost his own ego.  I mean would anyone be shocked to see a 500 pound Shaq sign with Dallas, hurt his hamstring in the pre-season, and have to retire a la Denver Broncos Jerry Rice?  I thought so.

Other Notable Free Agents:

ETO/PO, will sign extension in the off-season: Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce

Free Agents that will re-sign:  Ray Felton, Zydrunas Ilgauskis, Manu Ginobili, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola, Derek Fisher, Roger Mason, Randy Foye

Free Agents that will leave: Mike Miller, Brendan Haywood, Nate Robinson, Al Harrington, Jermaine O’Neal, Marcus Camby, Tracy McGrady